Monday, March 2, 2009

GDP response

The market is the definition of capitulation right now. Yes unemployment may continue to rise and GDP may continue to fall but there are rates to these economic factors. They will be changing in their respective directions at decreasing rates. In other words GDP may fall by 6% in Q4 2008 and it will again fall in Q1 2009 but at a smaller rate than in Q4 08, i.e., Q1 2009 GDP<6%. GDP figures come out 3 months after they happened; You don't know if you're in a recession until you're already in it. The economy will rebound before GDP numbers will show it. Of course there are always revisions to GDP too. So prepare for the rebound. We are smarter and have more tools at our disposal than the people in charge in the Great Depression so everyone calm down and take this for what it is worth.

No comments:

Post a Comment