Sunday, April 19, 2009

I told a few of you...


Im not saying I'm just saying. Some people asked me about what to do with their 401(k)'s back in Feb and Mar and I said max out contributions. Some people did and some people stopped contributing. Those who contributed should be able to retire a little sooner than those who didn't.....You're welcome.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Been a While...

I know it has been forever since I last posted but you wil soon see the fruits of my absence. Here is an article I found interesting from NYU professor Nouriel Roubini.
Like Lou Holtz said, "Things are never as bad as they, and things are never as good as they seem, but somewhere in the middle you can find the truth."

http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2009/04/roubini-end-of-gloom.html

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Vacation

Had the annual break of spring last week. Was nice relief but now the rubber hits the road with my classes. Two regression models to present and a cost benefit analysis of terrorist attacks, all due in three weeks. Yes I know its my fault I'm a procrastinator but my middle name is pressure. Postings will pick up in May as I finish my time here a Valdosta State University.

Oh I guess you wanted something relevant.....
How about this from Paul Krugman discussing Keynes.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/26/ive-got-keynes-right-here/

Monday, March 16, 2009

Bernanke Interview

From Professor Perry's blog "Carpe Diem" the 60 Minutes Interview with Ben Bernanke.

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/03/in-case-you-missed-it-bernanke-on-60.html

I think Bernanke was outstanding in this interview. Cool, calm, collect, making sure people know he is working on this issue night and day and making sure he uses every available tool he can.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Manifesto

Here is a founding principle of the neo-Keynesian economic movement. From Gregory Mankiw, Economics Professor at Harvard

The Pigou Club Manifesto

In today's Wall Street Journal, I offer a manifesto for the Pigou Club, the elite group of pundits and policy wonks with the good sense to advocate higher Pigovian taxes. (Click here for a partial membership list.)

Raise the Gas Tax
By N. Gregory Mankiw

With the midterm election around the corner, here's a wacky idea you won't often hear from our elected leaders: We should raise the tax on gasoline. Not quickly, but substantially. I would like to see Congress increase the gas tax by $1 per gallon, phased in gradually by 10 cents per year over the next decade. Campaign consultants aren't fond of this kind of proposal, but policy wonks keep pushing for it. Here's why:

The environment. The burning of gasoline emits several pollutants. These include carbon dioxide, a cause of global warming. Higher gasoline taxes, perhaps as part of a broader carbon tax, would be the most direct and least invasive policy to address environmental concerns.

Road congestion. Every time I am stuck in traffic, I wish my fellow motorists would drive less, perhaps by living closer to where they work or by taking public transport. A higher gas tax would give all of us the incentive to do just that, reducing congestion on streets and highways.

Regulatory relief. Congress has tried to reduce energy dependence with corporate average fuel economy standards. These CAFE rules are heavy-handed government regulations replete with unintended consequences: They are partly responsible for the growth of SUVs, because light trucks have laxer standards than cars. In addition, by making the car fleet more fuel-efficient, the regulations encourage people to drive more, offsetting some of the conservation benefits and exacerbating road congestion. A higher gas tax would accomplish everything CAFE standards do, but without the adverse side effects.

The budget. Everyone who has studied the numbers knows that the federal budget is on an unsustainable path. When baby-boomers retire and become eligible for Social Security and Medicare, either benefits for the elderly will have to be cut or taxes raised. The most likely political compromise will include some of each. A $1 per gallon hike in gas tax would bring in $100 billion a year in government revenue and make a dent in the looming fiscal gap.

Tax incidence. A basic principle of tax analysis -- taught in most freshman economics courses -- is that the burden of a tax is shared by consumer and producer. In this case, as a higher gas tax discouraged oil consumption, the price of oil would fall in world markets. As a result, the price of gas to consumers would rise by less than the increase in the tax. Some of the tax would in effect be paid by Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.

Economic growth. Public finance experts have long preached that consumption taxes are better than income taxes for long-run economic growth, because income taxes discourage saving and investment. Gas is a component of consumption. An increased reliance on gas taxes over income taxes would make the tax code more favorable to growth. It would also encourage firms to devote more R&D spending to the search for gasoline substitutes.

National security. Alan Greenspan called for higher gas taxes recently. "It's a national security issue," he said. It is hard to judge how much high oil consumption drives U.S. involvement in Middle Eastern politics. But Mr. Greenspan may well be right that the gas tax is an economic policy with positive spillovers to foreign affairs.

Is it conceivable that the policy wonks will ever win the battle with the campaign consultants? I think it is. Even after a $1 hike, the U.S. gas tax would still be less than half the level in, say, Great Britain, which last I checked is still a democracy. But don't expect those vying for office to come around until the American people recognize that while higher gas taxes are unattractive, the alternatives are even worse.

Update: Here and here.

I'm not a techie, but....

A big part of economics is information mobility, could this be perfect information mobility?

http://www.break.com/index/really-cool-new-sixth-sense-technology.html

Off the top of my head I know it has some work left to make it as useful as the iphone or a blackberry, but once this is made more user friendly and less bulky this will be the next wave of immediate and on demand information producer.

From the Horses Mouth

All of a sudden Jamie Dimon, Vikram Pandit, and Ken Lewis have come out of relative hiding to announce that their companies, JP Morgan, Citi, and Bank of America respectively, are now turning a profit. These announcements bother me in a couple of ways.
One, if they turned a profit in January and February where were they in February saying they had become profitable and their stock prices were plummeting. It seems to me tat they may have gotten a small little elbow nudge from the Treasury to get out in the public eye and let the public know the TARP is working.
Two, and most importantly, these are the same people who ran us into this mess and they are turning a profit. That should go to show you how easy it is to make money as a bank in these times. With all the money being given out to banks from the government and the flight to safety people are having out of equities and into more secure liquid assests its no wonder they are finally making a profit.
We will see how long it lasts.

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

MIA

I was missing for so long because of my birthday on the 4th. A year older a year wiser, and I still have no idea how to fix the housing problem.
Here is a little something to chew on for the day. Overall fiscal stimulus offered up by Congress since the recession has begun is around 4 trillion, and I never thought I would say this, give or take a few billion. Ehhh whats a few billion between friends. Here is what a trillion looks like.....
$1 Million


$1 Trillion (see the guy in the bottom left corner)


(http://www.pagetutor.com/trillion/index.html)

Monday, March 2, 2009

Compare for yourself...

Click to enlarge.

GDP response

The market is the definition of capitulation right now. Yes unemployment may continue to rise and GDP may continue to fall but there are rates to these economic factors. They will be changing in their respective directions at decreasing rates. In other words GDP may fall by 6% in Q4 2008 and it will again fall in Q1 2009 but at a smaller rate than in Q4 08, i.e., Q1 2009 GDP<6%. GDP figures come out 3 months after they happened; You don't know if you're in a recession until you're already in it. The economy will rebound before GDP numbers will show it. Of course there are always revisions to GDP too. So prepare for the rebound. We are smarter and have more tools at our disposal than the people in charge in the Great Depression so everyone calm down and take this for what it is worth.

Quote of the Day 1

"The bottom of the bear market is where fear and greed come face to face."~Connie Wright

Time to get greedy

Dow below 7K


Ok now is the time to move back into the stock market. Markets go up and markets go down this one is down...way down. Fear in markets is where opportunities exist. Fortnes can be made in this market right now. Double down on 401k's and max out all your conributions to your retirement accounts. Nowhere to go but up....



Wednesday, February 25, 2009

And let firefighters put out the fires

Here is a great article by David S. White:

Politicians explaining economics to the general populace is like having baseball stars explain theoretical physics for the masses (or, A-Rod, explaining the joys of natural foods to baseball fans). There is nothing simple or sound bite-sized, or easily understandable, about the complex tangle of interwoven threads that make up the current economic crisis – the fact that the world’s most gifted economists, people who have spent their life toiling in that vineyard, are having real trouble getting their collective arms around exactly what needs to be done to fix a painfully obviously, broken economic system, should tell us something about the presentation of economics issues for the average layperson by the average politician.

Most people are on the level of having trouble balancing their checkbooks. Indeed, dare I say in this era of on-line banking, most people don’t even balance their checkbooks anymore at all. We use calculators instead of all the fun math some of us stayed awake in class and listened to, back when, and we don’t even have to remember telephone numbers anymore because our snappy cell/PDA/smartphones remember hundreds of numbers so well that we are now totally divorced from that aspect of our memories. Is it any wonder, therefore, that, when faced with an implosion of our financial institutions and world economies, which some have compared to the Great Depression of the 30’s, that few, if any, can really follow the economics issued presented?
Gov Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, a charismatic, bright, rising star of the Republican Party, is about to make a huge mistake, which is a working lesson in this principle. Gov. Jindal has said he will turn down the Obama Stimulus Package Federal dollars aimed for Louisiana and actually give the money back. The Hannity’s and Limbaughs of the Talking Heads political world have gone to great lengths demonizing the Stimulus (and everybody who rode in on it), comparing it to Socialism and it’s inevitable boogeyman following close behind: Communism. Even Newsweek’s cover proclaims: “We’re all Socialists Now.”

This has directly led to the mistake that Jindal is about to make.
Let’s get real for a moment here. Anybody who has ever received Unemployment, or Social Security, or Veteran’s Benefits, or a whole host of other government-supplied money, has dipped a toe into the vast wading pool of Socialism, for what it’s worth. When banks fail and the FDIC (or S&L’s, and the FSLIC) takes them over – some 14 so far this still new year - we are witnessing Socialism in action right here in the good old US of A – it’s not something new at all. Let’s not all be quite so shocked about the fact that our brand of Capitalism has morphed light years past the unbridled, free-ranging form that allowed 19th Century Robber Barons and the Big Four to run America and California as their own fiefdoms for decades until the Populist movement of the early 20th Century came along - which we can thank for California’s Initiative Process, child labor laws, minimum wages, and the fact that unions even exist under Federal law protection (well, maybe not that last one). Without welfare, food stamps, disability benefits (both on the state and federal level), and many other such societal safety nets, we all would be stepping daily over thousands of bodies in the street everywhere we walk, like in Calcutta today – just in case you thought that our homeless numbers were large now.

When all other economic re-tooling mechanisms have been tried and failed and the Federal Funds Rate is effectively at zero; when banks, dead on their feet, like B of A, with a market cap of some $19 Billion, have already received a $45 Billion transfusion of your and my Federal Tax Dollars so far, the idea of providing economic Stimulus – the Fed injecting heaps of money into the economy - is the only arrow left in our quiver to fight this good fight. ‘Stimulus means spending,’ as the President bluntly said with some exasperation at a recent press conference, and we have to get used to that and learn to make that do the job which it is designed to do, or we have to get used to the fact that we are embarking on our own Lost Decade like Japan’s in the ‘90’s, and begin to hunker down for years of economic growth either at anemic levels or in negative numbers.

Making this complex knot of economic trouble into a political issue at this critical juncture is an instance of complete denial of the reality all around us – like living in one of those parallel universes that String Theorists now tell us must be out there somewhere, maybe curled up in a tiny ball. It is the kind of exploitation that we don’t need right now, even though I am sure that riding this media horse has generated huge TV and radio ratings and has endlessly entertained some who simply cannot get over having lost the November ’08 national elections – but, it is totally counter-productive when we should all be rowing in the same boat as the river continues to rise. The thousands who could have been employed in Louisiana and the thousands more who finally could have re-built their Katrina-destroyed homes and businesses with the Federal Stimulus money that Gov. Jindal is about to give back, will, in the end, be very sorry he did that. I predict that Gov. Jindal will be, too.

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

First Post

Here is the first post!
Jackson had his first day of school today.
Lindsey has her first day of sub teaching.
I have a long Econometrics class in the morning.
I would like to make this kind of a catch all blog. I think it will be cool for people to come see our musings of the days events family and economics related.

I, however, place economy among the first and most important republican virtues, and public debt as the greatest of the dangers to be feared.
-Thomas Jefferson